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obama is opening leads in states that mitt romney can least afford to lose. have a look at our new poll today. the president now has a 10-point lead in the swing state of ohio, 53% to 43. in florida, another key swing state, mr. obama's lead is nine points, 53% to 44. and the president leads by 12 point in pennsylvania, 54 to 42. this quinnipiac university/cbs news/"new york times" polls has a margin of roar of three points so the leads are significant. our cbs news election analysis team is moving ohio from a toss- up to leaning toward mr. obama. with that, we estimate 255 electoral votes are solidly in the obama camp or leaning that way. for governor romney the number is 206 with 270 needed to win. the president would have to pick up just 15 in the remaining toss-up state that you see on this map in gray. if the president wins ohio, governor romney would have to nearly sweep those toss-up states in order to win the white house. so no surprise that we find both candidates in ohio today. our campaign 2012 team is on their trail and we're going to start tonight with nancy cordes. nancy.
in the world can people say they want four more years of president obama? we can't afford four more years of president obama! ( cheers and applause ) >> reporter: romney has based his campaign on the economy, but if ohio, the economic picture has been improving. after hitting a high of 10.6% three years ago, unemployment has been at 7.2% for three straight months. the national average is 8.1%. outside dayton, romney also talked about how his plan to pursue new trade agreements will help people in the state. >> the people in ohio can sell products anywhere in the world, and we can compete with anywhere in the world. i'm not afraid of trading with other nations. i understand that when we trade and when other nations trade on a fair basis we will complete, we will win, we'll raise wages here, we'll create jobs. >> reporter: with the election possibly in the balance in ohio, both sides are campaigning hard. both candidates have been here 13 times this year and they will both be here tomorrow. >> here in ohio we're not better off under president obama. >> reporter: they're also flooding the ai
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